Market Integrity

PredictGlobe does not hold positions in its own markets. When you buy YES, the other side of that trade is another participant, not us.

Where we pair two of our own customers on opposite sides of a market, the full payout is set aside at the moment they are matched, before either position is open. That reserve is what makes the pairing safe: the winning side is already funded regardless of which way the market resolves, and we are never exposed to the outcome.

This matters more than any promise we could make about intent. A platform that profits from your loss will eventually behave like one. We built the incentive out instead.

A market price is what participants are currently willing to pay, and nothing else. We do not set prices, we do not adjust them, and we do not apply a hidden spread on top of the price you see.

A price of 63c on YES means the market collectively puts the outcome at roughly 63 percent. It is a reading of opinion, not a forecast we endorse.

Every market states its resolution source and its resolution date before it opens for trading. When the event concludes, the market settles against that source: winning positions pay $1.00 each, losing positions pay nothing.

• Resolution criteria are fixed when the market opens. We do not rewrite them after the fact to suit an outcome.
• Settlement is applied automatically to every holder at once, not case by case.
• Where a source is genuinely ambiguous, the market is paused and the ambiguity is stated publicly rather than resolved quietly.

Every credit and every debit is a double-entry record. Nothing is ever edited or deleted in place: a correction is a new, visible entry that references the one it corrects.

Your balance is not a number stored in a field that someone could change. It is calculated from the entries every time it is shown, which means a silent adjustment is not something the system can express.

Some behaviour damages a market for everyone using it, and we act on it:

• Trading on a market whose outcome you can influence, or already privately know.
• Running multiple accounts to trade against yourself, or to move a price.
• Coordinated trading intended to push a price away from what either party believes.
• Spreading claims about an outcome you know to be false in order to move a price.

We monitor for these patterns continuously. Where we find them, we close the positions involved, reverse what can be reversed, and may close the account permanently.

If a market looks wrong to you, or a resolution does not match its stated source, tell us. A market that resolved incorrectly is a serious failure and we treat a report as such.

Send what you saw, the market it concerns and roughly when, to hello@predictglobe.com. We investigate every report and answer it.